IT, Status and Future

In the recently released research, Acroscape (www.acroscape.com) asks the question "What is the status of IT industry or what are the criteria to judge the status of IT industry?" Whether it is a mature industry or it is an industry ready for rapid growth? From the company believe that the IT industry is currently in a transition period after the bubble of 2001, and we will be likely to see a business boom in 2007.

The answers have significant consequences not only to the IT industry but also to the whole business world, states the Acroscape's release. The company has performed a critical assessment of the status of IT industry. Acroscape, an independent invention business with a focus on fundamental technologies released a research showing the IT perspectives.

Nicholas G. Carr published a controversial article "IT doesn't matter" in Harvard Business Review in May 2003. Carr writes "while no one can say precisely when the build out of infrastructural technology has concluded, there are many signs that the IT build out is much closer to its end than its beginning."

Among the indications are the affordability of IT, vendors positioning themselves as utility suppliers, an overabundance of fiber-optic capacity, and IT capabilities outstripping most business needs, says the research.

Larry Ellison, the chairman of Oracle Corp., has been one of the most vocal proponents of the view that the technology industry is graying, notes the document (Steve Lohr, New York Time, May 5, 2003).   

However, Carr's article has attracted fierce criticisms from many people in the IT industry. "Harvard Business Review has 243,000 extremely influential readers. So if it publishes an article saying that information technology doesn't matter, then an awful lot of important business leaders are going to believe it.

And if they do, they'll run their companies - and our economy - into a ditch." (Robert M. Metcalfe, MIT Technology Review, June 2004). At Microsoft, Steve Ballmer responded "hogwash", while Bill Gates said: "We disagree with all of this." GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt said the idea is "stupid". HP CEO Carly Fiorina said Carr is "dead wrong".

On the other hand, on the basis of the progress of unifying standards in the computer industry and electronics industry, some people think the big bang has arrived, or the convergence of the $1.1 trillion computer and software business, the $2.2 trillion communication industry and the $225 billion consumer electronics industry (Stephen Baker and Heather Green, Business Week, June 21, 2004).

The difference lies at the current status of IT industry. IT industry is in a transition period, says the release. We are still in the early days of the digital age and the rapid growth lies ahead. IT will be the source of an upcoming economic boom.

The "universal" capability simply means the system works universally with all physical networks and devices. The "people-oriented" capability means that the physical networks and devices have the capability to identify people.

The people-oriented feature should work universally for all physical networks and devices. All the messages, documents, audio files and video files are also people-oriented with the ownership information and a mechanism to universally verify the ownership identity.

The following are some of the predictions when a stable platform of people-oriented universal communication emerges in 2007.

1. Boom of IT industry. The stable platform of people-oriented universal communication will create a huge market from the traditional telecommunication industry to such industries as motion pictures, television, publishing, music, personal computer, physical delivery, electronic devices, appliances, and retail sale.
2. Business reshuffle. Similar to the railroad and electricity industry, the period of rapid growth is also a period of consolidation. Especially when we have the convergence of three huge industrial sectors of computer, communication and consumer electronics, we will see considerable competition
3. Email will replace regular mail as the dominant form of personal and business correspondence.
4. CD and DVD will no longer be the media for music and movie distribution. As the rights of digital materials are properly addressed, music will be sold online on a per-song basis and movies will be downloaded.
5. Newspapers will be mostly online. This eliminates the cost of printing and delivery.
6. Business software development will be different. Software components and tools will be developed by specialized software companies

In view of the conflicting opinions from business leaders and experts, it seems necessary to have a critical assessment of the status and future of the IT industry. Such critical information is valuable to business and technology managers, investors, policy makers, and anyone with a stake in future of IT industry, concludes the research.